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THECOMMERCIAL GREENHOUSEGROWER • MARCH 2017
• HTACONFERENCE
rates low encouraged consumer spending giving a boost
to the economy,” he said. “The biggest impact to-date has
been the collapse in the value of the pound, with a gradual
improvement towards the end of the year.”
On the longer-term horizon he highlighted problemswith
inflation and the impact on consumer spending.
“As the value of the pounddrops, expect inflation to increase
more than in 2016,” hewarned. “Many companies have not
passed on increased costs yet, but have absorbed them.
Expect an inflation spike in 2017. Oil prices are generally a
good indicator of howpriceswill change. Price rises impact
on disposable incomes.”
A hardBrexit will mean no freedom of movement or access
to the singlemarket, resulting in theUKmaking its own trade
agreements.
Turning to the potential impact on the ornamentals sector,
Joshua said the immediate concernwas access tomigrant
labour - the horticultural industry is reliant onmigrants and
needs the correct quota, he said.
Most UK exports (60%) go to Europe and 40% to the rest
of theworld. While Trump has promised to push through a
trade deal quickly, Mr McBain said other countries - such as
Australia andNew Zealand –were also looking positive.
He ended on a positive note saying; “While it is far easier to
see the negative consequences brought about by uncertainty,
therewill be some benefits and opportunities in the future. At
themoment these cannot be seen as clearly as the risks.”
Brexit - view fromEU
Jan de Vries −director of theBoot andDart nurseries, in
Boskoop, and a boardmember of Anthos (theRoyal Trade
Association for nursery stock and flower bulbs) – outlined
European industry concerns for the future.
“TheUK importsmost of its ornamental plants,” he said. “Brexit
has huge implications for nurseries on the continent aswell as
UK nurseries, landscapers and contractors.”
Post Brexit he askedwill theUK industry be able to recruit
and retain the necessarymigrant labour? “At themoment the
majority of migrants are fromEastern Europe, andwith fewer
Polishmigrants there aremore fromBulgaria andRomania,” he
said. “Will migrants fromSyria andNorthAfricawant towork
in our sector? They tend to head to cities and not rural areas.
Howwill thesemigrants react to changing legislation –will the
UKbe seen as an attractive destination for them?
HTA
CONFERENCE
Surviving and thriving
Day one of theHTA’s biennial Contact Conference for nursery
stock growers − ‘Surviving and Thriving’ – provided a useful
insight in toUK economy post Brexit and updateddelegates
on issues including plant health, water abstraction, labour and
responsible sourcing of growingmedia, writes Sue Jupe.
Held in associationwith theBritish ProtectedOrnamentals
Association (BPOA) SpringConference – atWhittlebury
Hall, inNorthamptonshire – the two-day event attracted over
70delegates from theUK hardy nursery stock industry. A
separate event, the Association of Professional Landscapers
(APL) StoneSeminar, was held in tandemwith shared lunches
and breaks offering networking opportunities across sectors of
the industry that rarelymeet. With expanding interests across
both sectors – ornamentals and landscaping - ICLwas the
Contact Conference Partner for both events.
Welcoming delegatesGeoffCaesar, managing director of The
BransfordWebbs Plant Company, said: “Any period of change
provides opportunities. We are facing uncertainty in the
economy, legislation andweather - plus a fluctuating currency.
As an industrywe have the diversity to embrace change, we
aremade up of small nimble businesses and effective trade
associations.”
Outliningwhat Brexit couldmean to growers, JoshuaMcBain
– head of innovation at the Foresight Factory – said it was
important to explore thewider narrativewhen looking at theUK
economy post Brexit.
His insightful presentation came an hour ahead of the Prime
Minster, TheresaMay’s, speech setting out plans for Brexit.
Ruling out theUK’s continuedparticipation in the European
SingleMarket, she set out her intention to pursue a free trade
agreement with the EU.
Highlighting growing support for populist anti-globalization and
anti-establishment leaders, he said forthcoming elections in
theNetherlands, Germany and Francewould test the anti EU
shift.
“How the EU changes over the next five yearswill effect the
UK exit - we could see a big change in the EU aswe leave,”
warned Joshua.
Hewent on to say that it had proved to be a ‘soft landing’ in
2016 – far more positive than predicted. “Keeping interest
